2013年2月22日--第8周

中国五矿集团首席分析师

张荣辉

每周行情述评

开盘：16970最高：16978最低：16465收盘：16605

经过上周的暴跌之后，本周LME镍市场有所企稳，三月期货价基本围绕在16500上下窄幅拉锯。短期内大幅超跌，进一步做空的动能不足，但由于基金仍然保持空头，投机者不敢大肆买入，加之缺乏消费买盘，做多的动力同样不足。镍市场供需基本面不尽人意，投行仍然不看好镍价后市；汇丰中国PMI制造业指数2月份下滑，1月份中国主要有色金属进出口同比大幅下降，中国需求担忧再起起；市场关注的焦点无疑是美国的自动减支计划，截至2月28日美国两党就避免自动减支计划未能达成一致，市场担心美国经济增长受到影响；欧美经济数据喜忧参半，美元指数继续大幅反弹上扬，欧美股市和商品市场继续弱势徘徊等等因素拖累。少量空头获利回补买盘支持，但基金和投机者继续压制价格。全周高开后小幅震荡小幅收低，最高16978，最低16465。

周四（2月28日）伦敦时间下午5点整LME三月期镍价场内收盘16605美元/吨，较上周四收盘跌30美元/吨，周跌幅0.18%。

本周市场关注的焦点无疑是美国的自动减支计划，截至2月28日美国两党就避免自动减支计划未能达成一致。3月1日（本周五）是自动减支谈判的最后期限，虽然奥巴马试图努力避免自动减支计划，但来自共和党的压力重重。一旦谈判破裂，美国政府将于3月1日起自动削减850亿美元的开支，奥巴马称可能影响美国经济增长下滑0.6%。

与此同时本周美国经济数据喜忧参半：2月美国咨商局消费者信心指数上升至69.6,为4个多月来的新高；1月新屋销售较前月猛增15.6%,年率为43.7万户；2012年12月份房价按月上涨0.6%,按年上涨5.8%；但是1月建筑许可修正为减少0.6%,前值为成长1.8%，年率为90.4万户；1月耐久财(耐用品)订单较前月下降5.2%；第四季国内生产总值(GDP)环比年率修正值为成长0.1%,(预估为增长0.5%),2月23日一周初请失业金人数为34.4万人，低于预期。

汇丰(HSBC)周一公布名为"汇丰中国制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)预览"的2月初值数据降至50.4,为四个月低点,但仍连续第四个月处在荣枯线50上方.1月终值为52.3.Markit提供的新闻稿并显示,2月新出口订单分项指数初值跌至荣枯线下方,从上月终值50.5降至49.8.是次PMI预览数据样本采集自2月12-21日之间,终值定于3月1日发布.中国官方研究机构--中国国家信息中心发布报告称,国内"稳增长"政策继续发挥作用,企业由"去库存"逐步转入"补库存",加之国外环境有所好转,中国经济将延续小幅回升态势,预计今年国内生产总值(GDP)增速有望高于上年,一季度GDP增长8%左右,CPI上涨2.6%左右。

本周镍供需基本面：LME镍库存继续大幅增加，全球镍需求清淡，投行继续不看好后市。

市场景气指数：偏弱

主要供需及宏观因素：镍库存继续增加，全球不锈钢市场需求清淡

综合技术指标：日线：偏弱周线：中立

技术图形：将企稳在16000附近

技术支持阻力位：短期内支持位16200，阻力17000，中长期支持15000，阻力26500。

LME库存：较上周四增加3583吨，总库存为157980吨。

现货对三月期货差价：61c，现货贴水维持平稳

后势预测：

短期：企稳在16000-16500一线，波幅16200－16800

中期：波幅15500－21000

长期：波幅15000－26500

宏观及供需基本面动态：

今年1月巴西镍产量增长

今年1月份巴西镍产量为6,212吨，同比增长13.9%，环比增长8.8%。镍出口占其总产量的26%，达1,622吨，环比下滑63.6%，同比下滑55.5%。同时，1月份巴西国内市场镍销量（包括进口）达1,581吨，环比增长42.7%，同比下滑7.5%。

我国新发现钨钼镍等多个大型矿床

国土资源部地质勘查司负责人近日表示，我国找矿突破战略行动实施以来成果超出预期，发现和查明了一批具有世界级储量规模的矿床。

据悉，找矿突破战略行动是立足国内增强能源资源保障能力的一项国家战略行动。该行动实施两年以来，我国相继探明了南堡、华庆、塔河、蓬莱19-3等15个探明储量大于1亿吨的油田；探明了苏里格、普光、徐深等14个探明储量大于1000亿立方米的气田，初步形成了苏里格、塔北等万亿立方米世界级规模大气区；煤炭勘查在新疆和山西新增千亿吨以上的资源储量；在鄂尔多斯盆地查明一个超大型砂岩型铀矿(大营铀矿)；钨、钼、镍等发现多个大型矿床，新兴材料资源在甘肃、新疆等地新发现3个大型以上矿产地。

嘉能可公司新任CEO批评即将离任的CEO过渡扩张新矿开发

    Glencore International Plc Chief Executive Officer Ivan Glasenberg criticized his recently departed mining CEO peers for swamping the industry with new mines that led to a surplus in metals and trimmed profits. “The big guys really screwed up,” Glasenberg, 56, told investors today in a presentation. “We’ve always been wanting to keep building and keep putting the cash which we generate into new assets. That’s what we’ve got to stop doing as a mining industry. We’ve got to learn about demand and supply.” The biggest mining companies including BHP Billiton Ltd., Rio Tinto Group and Anglo American Plc reported lower profits this month on rising costs and waning global growth. The CEOs of those three have quit or announced plans to go after investors criticized them for takeovers that were later written down. “CEOs of all the mining companies have lost their jobs,” Glasenberg told the BMO Capital Markets conference in Hollywood, Florida. “Now we have a new generation of CEOs. I hope CEOs have learnt their lesson. They built, they didn’t get the returns for their shareholders. It’s time to stop building.” Glasenberg, a 28-year veteran of Glencore, took over as CEO in 2002 and pursued a strategy of growth by acquisition. Since a $10 billion initial public offering in 2011, he has agreed a $34 billion all-share deal to buy Xstrata Plc to add mines and smelters, and completed a C$6.1 billion ($5.9 billion) takeover of Viterra Inc. in December to boost agriculture operations.

    Stalling development of new mines will help prolong higher prices for commodities, the former accountant and coal trader said. He is Glencore’s biggest holder with about 15.5 percent. “We will get better returns on our investments, we will be able to kick out more cash to our shareholders,” he said. “We will be late to invest. So, who cares? We’ll be late and we’ll have to invest in five years’ time. It’ll take us three years to build the mine but we could hopefully have an eight-year run.” Combining with Xstrata, the company will have interests in about 35 coal mines in Colombia, Africa and Australia, and make up about 10 percent of global seaborne exports of the fuel. It will be the world’s third-biggest producer of mined copper, the largest zinc miner, and the biggest exporter of coal burned by power stations. The group will have about 11 percent of the 13 million metric-ton global zinc market and about 40 percent of the 1.9 million tons of the metal produced in Europe. Glencore hopes to get final regulatory approval for the Xstrata takeover from China by a March 15 deadline, Glasenberg said, adding that he doesn’t think Xstrata’s 25 percent stake in Lonmin Plc is a “long-term asset” for the next company.

说明：LME每周镍行情报道由中国五矿集团首席分析师张荣辉撰写，分为市场动态述评、技术分析以及个人市场预测。市场动态述评主要说明过去一周的市场动静。技术分析主要是预测下一个或几个交易日的技术阻力位和支持位。后势看法或市场预测主要是本人根据基本面情况、市场多空力量和技术面所做的一个综合预测，一般对今几个交易日或中长期进行预测。本市场报道为独家报道，未经允许，不得转载。本报道的市场分析及走势预测为个人观点，仅供参考，投资者切勿以此作为投资的根据。

注：本报道中所指的短期为：2－5天之内，中短期为10－30天之内，中期一般为1－3个月，长期为3个月以上。