梁伟刚

在2012.03.30，全球钢铁资讯机构麦普斯（MEPS）称，变化莫测的LME镍市场已经再次夸大了对不锈钢供应链涨涨跌跌的影响性质。在2012年的前段时间，正如多数年份一样，采购活动推动许多贸易商和终端用户这些人重建库存，补充早先为满足控制年末存储指标而减少的量。这种需求的增加以及暂时的供应趋紧导致了钢厂提高了不锈钢产品的基价。

另一方面，原材料成本迅速上升，导致2月份和3月份奥氏体不锈钢的合金附加费大幅上涨。不锈钢贸易商能够理解，当价格提高了还欣然购买了材料。因为水涨船高的良性循环也将使得售价相应增加。

每年市场的贸易商和观望者都在问着同样的问题：“这种上涨趋势还将持续多长时间？”最近，这种走势增大了价格的急剧变化；每年，这种短期态势都会有些过头。一段时间以来，已经显示出来了，4月份合金附加费有可能下降。上周，欧洲和北美生产商对此已经确认。恰逢购买者也意识到，在不久的将来，交易的产品价值将贬低，其结果将导致库存补充计划结束。因此，采购活动突如其来戛然而止。

价格频繁波动、急速变化以及大幅震荡，引发不合常情的采购模式，这些都是在所难免的。在这种情形下，镍价的波动性以及奥氏体不锈钢产品的成本因素的影响因此被放大。截稿此时，在过去的七周，LME镍现货走势已经跌了4300美元/吨，跌幅19.7%。即使LME镍价在接下来的4月没有进一步下跌，5月欧洲钢厂的合金附加费大致也趋同于1月份。那时304钢种的不锈钢的合金附加费已经涨幅超过了200欧元/吨；而在4个月的时间也跌去同样的程度。

亚洲钢厂通常不采用合金附加费形式而采用每月度调整甚至频繁调整的方式。当价格走势下跌时，那里的客户更倾向于遵循直截了当的规则，直接降低他们所采购的产品价值。在这些情形下，买家的行为是完全可以理解的。然而，这些行为掩藏了真实的需求情形，使得所有相关的短期乃至中期的计划，难以做出。

在西方，大多数的不锈钢厂家和代理商已经预测到了2012年的销售量将远不如2011年。MEPS继续预测中国消费和产出强劲增长，即使增长比最近几年低。虽然这些国家的消费不协调，中央计划的发展重点不时转换。在日本，2011年的灾害也导致了重建的需求产生了波峰和波谷。由人为因素引发商品市场的变化比起这种大自然的不确定性更加复杂。

AUSTENITIC STAINLESS STEEL PRICE REDUCTIONS ARE IMMINENT - MEPS

30.03.2012

The vagaries of the LME nickel market have once again exaggerated the stop-start nature of stainless steel supply chains. In the early part of 2012, as in most years, buying activity picked up as distributors and end-users alike rebuilt their inventories, having earlier cut back their purchases in an effort to meet year-end stock targets. This increase in demand and the resultant temporary tightness in supply enabled the mills to increase basis prices.

Meanwhile, raw material costs escalated, leading to significant hikes in alloy surcharges for austenitic steels in February and March. Traders of stainless steel are, understandably, more comfortable buying material when prices are rising. So, a virtuous circle of increased purchasing and escalating values is created.

The question asked by market participants and observers, every year, is, "How long will this upward trend last?" The pattern, in recent times, has been for prices to increase more steeply, over a shorter period, each year. It has been apparent for some time that alloy surcharges were likely to fall in April. This was confirmed by producers in Europe and North America last week. The result is that the completion of stock replenishment programmes coincides with the buyers' realisation that transaction values will be lower in the near future. Consequently, purchasing activity grinds to a quite sudden halt.

It is inevitable that frequent, rapid and substantial changes in prices will cause irregular buying patterns. In the case of austenitic stainless steels, this is amplified by the volatility of the value of nickel and the influence of that element in the cost of the product. At the time of writing, the LME Nickel Cash figure has dropped by US$4300 per tonne, or 19.7 percent, in the last seven weeks. Even if the LME price were to fall no further in the coming month, its contribution to European mills' surcharges for May would be approximately the same as it was in January. The alloy extra for type 304 stainless steel could then have risen by more than €200 per tonne and decreased by the same amount, in the space of four months.

Asian mills do not normally employ formal alloy surcharges but still revise selling values monthly or even more frequently. Customers there tend to obey the straightforward rule of minimising their purchases when prices are on a downward curve. The behaviour of buyers in these circumstances is perfectly understandable. However, these actions disguise the true demand situation and make it difficult, for all concerned, to plan for the short to medium term.

Most stainless steel producers and distributors in the West have been forecasting sales volumes for this year that do not differ greatly from those of 2011. MEPS continues to predict significant growth in demand and output in China, albeit increasing by less than in recent years. Consumption in that country, though, can be inconsistent because the focus of centrally planned development may switch from time to time. In Japan, the phasing of reconstruction following last year's disasters may also lead to peaks and troughs in demand. These natural uncertainties are further complicated by the artificial variations arising from the commodities markets.