梁伟刚

进入2012年3月份，全球钢铁资讯机构麦普斯（MEPS）称，2012年全球镍金属过剩4万吨，将会压制（constrain）不锈钢价格。

往年这个季节之时，全球的不锈钢市场将表现出积极的迹象。强劲的需求将使得钢厂补充库存，而且用户超前采购的需求期待价格提升。厂商也能够排满未来几个月的基本生产订单。一般在2月8日起直至3月份，LME的镍价走势将使得多数国家的合金附加费提高。

然而，北美和北欧的采购商报告，销售量比预期要好一些。市场存在谨慎乐观的气氛，这可能受去库存化和投机卖盘的影响。

当然，批发商主要关注镍价的持续性。他们担心镍价开始走低而套在高价的材料上。这一点可能并不遥远。在过去几周，LME镍价已经呈现下降趋势，这可能很快导致四月的合金附加费走低。

未来镍价的前景并不很好。在2012年，澳大利亚、巴西、新喀里多尼亚和马达加斯加，新的镍矿开采项目正在运作，仅这些将使得全球镍产量多出10万吨。这将促成2012年的供应量超过需求达4万吨。而且生产持续的话，这种过剩很有可能持续到2014年。

此外，对于不锈钢的生产来说，使用镍生铁（NPI）对镍金属的价格仍然是个制约。中国精炼的低等级镍生铁（NPI）材料，对地方的钢铁生产商，可作为初级镍或废钢的替代品。当LME期镍价格走势达2万美元/吨以上时，大多数镍生铁（NPI）厂家的制造成本趋向镍价格的上档，除非供需平衡变化或外界因素开始起作用。相反，镍生铁（NPI）厂家的制造成本低于市场的价格时，镍生铁（NPI）的供应量将减少，LME期镍价格走势波动在1.7-1.9万美元之间。

从积极的层面看，最近公布的数字显示，主要市场的制造业意外强劲增长，例如：如美国、英国和世界上最大的不锈钢消费国中国都是如此。麦普斯（MEPS）预计，2012年全球不锈钢粗钢量同比仍然有5.5%的增长至3390万吨。

2012年镍价或将保持在一个相当窄幅的区间内波动。麦普斯（MEPS）预计年内LME镍均价比起2011年下降5.8%为21500美元/吨。然而短期看，镍价的走势波动和其合金附加费的相互影响将继续左右着不锈钢的买卖双方。

NICKEL SURPLUS MAY CONSTRAIN STAINLESS STEEL PRICES - MEPS

    The global stainless steel market is exhibiting the positive signs that are customary at this time of year. Demand on the mills is strong, boosted by inventory replenishment and buyers purchasing forward in anticipation of rising transaction prices. Producers are able to lift basis values as their order books are full for the next couple of months. The alloy adjustment element of prices in most countries will climb, at least until March, as a result of LME nickel figures, which were on an upward trend until February 8.

    Furthermore, sellers in North America and northern Europe report better than expected sales volumes. While this is certainly influenced by restocking and speculative buying, there is an air of cautious optimism in the market.

    The major note of concern is the ongoing price of nickel. Stockists are, of course, worried that they will be caught with expensive material when values begin to fall. That point may not be far away. The LME nickel price has been on a downward trend for the last few weeks, which could lead to lower surcharges as soon as April.

    The prospects for future nickel values are not very positive. New mining projects in Australia, Brazil, New Caledonia and Madagascar could add more than 100,000 tonnes to global nickel production in 2012. This will contribute to a surplus of supply over demand that could exceed 40,000 tonnes this year. Production may continue to outstrip consumption until 2014.

    Moreover, nickel pig iron (NPI) remains a constraint on the value of the pure metal to stainless steel producers. The low grade, Chinese-refined material can be used by the local steelmakers as a substitute for primary nickel or scrap. The cost of making NPI varies between sources but operations are viable for most producers when LME figures rise above $US20,000 per tonne. This tends to put a glass ceiling on the nickel price unless the supply/demand balance changes quickly or external factors come into play. Conversely, NPI suppliers drop out of the market as values fall below their production costs, contributing to an effective floor to the LME price of between $US17,000 and $US19,000 per tonne.

    On the positive side, recently released figures show unexpectedly strong manufacturing growth in major markets such as the USA, the UK and the world's largest stainless steel consumer, China. MEPS continues to forecast global crude stainless steel output at 33.9 million tonnes in 2012, a year-on-year increase of 5.5 percent.

    Nickel prices are likely to remain in a fairly tight range this year. MEPS predicts an annual average LME value of $US21,500 per tonne, 5.8 percent down on the 2011 figure. However, it is the short term volatility in the nickel market and its proportionate effect on alloy surcharges and transaction figures, that continues to trouble buyers and sellers of stainless steel.