梁伟刚

2011年11月02日，全球钢铁咨询公司MEPS报道，预计2011年全球不锈粗钢生产量高达3250万吨。这将创了历史新高，比起去年将高出4.5%。

因全球经济复苏缓慢，早先预计不锈钢产量是下滑的。预计在2012年产量将进一步提高7.1%，全球不锈钢粗钢产量将达到年3480万吨。

中国----产量比起去年还是增长

今年第二季度和第三季度，尽管需求和产量低于预测，中国的不锈钢产量比起去年还是增长了13%。预计2012年还将进一步增长11%。

台湾---多年来最低的数字

由于中国和韩国继续扩大不锈钢产业，台湾厂商不断失去市场份额，今年的测算将是多年来最低的数字。

日本---产量维持在相对高位

今年早些时候，尽管日本经历了自然灾害，但不锈钢产量一直维持在一个相当好的水平。2011年测算，预计将略低于去年的市场量。

南韩----更强的表现

今年韩国比其邻国表现更强烈一些，增加成品的生产能力和出口量，保持积极的销售。2011年总产量预计将提升了3.5%。

美国----产量在减少

美国在第二季度的最后产量比原来预想的要低得多。疲弱的生产一直持续到整个夏季。因此，预计2011年总产量的表现将比去年减少3.6%。

欧盟----受制于主权债务

欧盟的复苏一直受制于几个成员国的主权债务问题。预计2011年不锈钢生产的产量比前一年提高1.0%，但仍低于2006年高峰数字的81%。

另有报道，2011年前10个月全球不锈钢粗钢产量已经创历史新高。中国不锈钢产量增长最高达18%。欧洲和亚洲地区的不锈钢产量增长6.4%。美洲的不锈钢产量增长了6.9%。

全球第二大不锈钢生产厂家，芬兰奥托昆普公司不久前曾宣布，受需求低迷影响，2011年3季度净亏损1.35亿欧元（1.86亿美元）。计划采取种种措施，以便公司在2012年节约1.4亿美元成本，包括将解雇1300名员工。此次裁员主要是位于瑞典(预计超过600人)和芬兰(预计超过300人)的公司。进一步的报道是：第三季度的不锈钢发货量是34万吨，不锈钢的平均基价（2.0mm厚304冷轧）是1150欧元/吨。2011年第二季度的不锈钢发货量是34.8万吨，2011年第一季度的不锈钢发货量是38万吨，2011年1-9月的不锈钢发货量为106.8万吨。

据媒体最新报道，从安赛乐米塔尔分拆上市的不锈钢生产商Aperam因为需求疲弱，2011年第三季度面临亏损。净亏损将达到4100万美元，与之相比2011年前三个月还盈利200万美元。其原因是不锈钢出货量锐减18%，收入仅为15.2亿美元，减少了11%。

附件：MEPS Steel News

RECORD HIGH LEVELS OF STAINLESS STEEL OUTPUT PREDICTED FOR 2011 AND 2012

Total world crude stainless steel production for 2011 is predicted to be 32.5 million tonnes. This would be an all-time high tonnage, 4.5 percent greater than the previous record, set last year. MEPS’ earlier forecast has been revised downward because economies around the world have recovered from recession less quickly than had been anticipated. Further output gains are expected in 2012. Growth of 7.1 percent is forecast, to give an annual crude stainless steel outturn of 34.8 million tonnes.

Despite lower than predicted demand, and therefore production, during the second and third quarters of this year, Chinese annual output is forecast to grow by more than 13 percent on last year's previous record. A further increase of approximately 11 percent is anticipated in 2012.

Taiwanese producers continue to lose market share to the expanding stainless steel industries of China and South Korea. This year's forecast outturn will be the lowest annual figure for many years.

In Japan, stainless steel production has been maintained at a decent level despite the natural disaster, earlier this year. The 2011 total outturn is predicted to be marginally down on last year's mark.

South Korea has performed more strongly than some of its neighbours this year, increasing finished products capacity and maintaining export volumes with aggressive selling. Total output for 2011 is expected to rise by 3.5 percent.

The final outturn for the second quarter in the United States was much lower than had been envisaged. Subdued production continued throughout the summer period. Consequently, the anticipated total output for 2011 represents a decrease of 3.6 percent on last year's figure.

The recovery in the European Union has been restrained by sovereign debt issues in several member nations. Forecast stainless steel output for 2011 is 1.0 percent up on the previous year's production but still less than 81 percent of the peak figure from 2006.